The future of China in transport is not through more cars. Photo by Ol.v!er [H2vPk].

With new leadership in Beijing in 2013, Chinese people may express their need for change to their government, including the need for better urban transport. For cities in China, 2013 will be another year of rapid change, coming with great challenges and opportunities to improve the quality of urban life. The country’s investment-driven economy will keep urban development and public transport infrastructure – think metro and bus rapid transit (BRT) – growing, but still more and more Chinese will buy a car. The challenges of traffic congestion and air pollution from automobiles, already affecting large cities like Beijing, will now confront more second-tier cities.

Could Chinese cities develop more sustainable mobilities? In today’s and tomorrow’s blog we will be look at five trends affecting urban transportation in China: the expansion of urban rail, the fight against air pollution, the automobile ban, a biking renaissance, and multi-modal integration.

Trend 1 – Urban Rail Expansion

On December 30th, 2012, Beijing opened new 70 kilometers of metro lines, surpassing London and becoming – at 442 kilometers – the city with the world’s largest metro system. In 2012 again, three Chinese cities – Hangzhou, Suzhou and Kunming opened their long-awaited metro lines, bringing the total of Chinese cities with a metro to 18.

China’s urban railway will continue to undergo fast expansion in 2013. In China, urban rail systems are widely regarded as a benchmark for a modern, livable city – cities are craving metros to meet this “new normal”. The central government issues strict criteria, only allowing large (population over three million) and wealthy cities (GDP over 100 billion yuan, or $16 bn) to build metros, yet many cities are set to meet these baseline criteria and more urban railways will be seen in Chinese cities. In September 2012, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) approved subway and light rail lines in 23 cities. This was the largest number of projects ever approved at one time by the NDRC, for a total investment amount in excess of 800 billion yuan, or $128 billion. As of today, over 30 cities have urban rail systems under construction. China plans to add 2,500 kilometers of metro lines during the current 5-year plan (2010-2015), where the total length of metros in operation in 2010 in the country was only 1,471 km.

The ambitious metro expansion plan brings great challenges to finance. For some cities, metro expansion will be at the expense of development of rest of public transport system. For it is not only costly in construction but also in operation. Currently, most cities maintain very low ticket rate due to the price control of the central government, e.g. Beijing subsidized 3.69 billion yuan (US$500 million dollars) on its metro operation in 2012 . And the local governments which is in charge of urban transport development receive half their funding from land sales and from borrowing money. As highlighted in a recent McKinsey’s prediction, this is unsustainable and Chinese cities will start to go bankrupt in 2013.

However, change may come soon. The State Council’s recently announced policy to allow the capture of the increase in land value around public transportation stations to finance transport development. This new policy may open the doors to new urban rail finance for Chinese cities. They can find inspiration in the Rail + Property Model in Hong Kong.

Trend 2- Battling with Air Pollution

Once again in 2013 Chinese cities will be battling with air pollution. China’s air quality crisis is now nation-wide. On the second week of January, dense smog shrouded Beijing, Shanghai and other cities in China, making headlines around the world and creating serious health concerns. On January 13th, Beijing’s reading of PM2.5 (particular with the diameter of less than 2.5 microns) reached nearly 1,000 micrograms per cubic meter, about 40 times the level recommended by the World Health Organization. According to a recent report by Greenpeace, high levels of PM2.5 is predicted to have caused over 8,000 premature deaths in four cities across China in the year 2010.

Admittedly, China has made efforts towards more transparency in air quality public data over the past year. In January 2012, Beijing began releasing its own air quality data. In March, 2012, the Ministry of Environmental Protection revised the air quality standard to include PM2.5 particles along with other pollutants. This year, the national government is making even bigger strides to improve air quality transparency: beginning this month, real-time air quality monitoring data on PM2.5 intensity in China’s 74 major cities will be made available by China’s National Environmental Monitoring Center. The Ministry of Environment Protection (MEP) also announced it will reduce the intensity of PM 2.5 by 5 percent by 2015 (compared to 2010 levels) across thirteen major urban areas covering 14 percent of the country and 71 percent of the nation’s GDP.

At the local level, cities are making great efforts to relieve emissions. Beijing will take some official vehicles off the road on extremely polluted. And Lanzhou, one of the most polluted cities in the world, is considering an even-odd license plate travel policy to help minimize air pollution.

Battling with air pollution will be a long term effort, on a road often portrayed as oscillating between economic development (related to coal fired plants and the automobiles) and environmental protection. Currently, the air pollution issue seems to over shadow other pressing issues like corruption. As vehicle emissions are often the second largest contributor to air pollution in most Chinese cities, the increasing demands of the rising middle class for clean air are likely to drive the government to take more radical actions on cars.

Trend 3 – Private Car Ban

As the world’s largest automobile market, China will continue to regress towards ever more cars, while more cities might operate car restrictions in response to congestion and air pollution. Recent forecasts show that 2013 car sales will be up 8%, slower than the growth rate in recent years. Although China will continue driving one third of the global growth in the automobile market, the trend is more than likely to change with the increase of car restrictions in cities.

Last July, Guangzhou rolled out a vehicle license quota, modeled after Shanghai, Beijing, and Guiyang. With Guangzhou, the three largest cities in China limit vehicle purchases to stem the tide of private auto ownership.

This type of restriction is rarely found worldwide – with Singapore a notable exception. These restriction policies may indicate a tipping point in sight for China’s rate of motorization.

Meanwhile, many other cities have already limited vehicles driving on the roads using travel restrictions based on vehicle license plate numbers. As of today these restrictions are in place in 7 cities – Beijing, Changchun, Chengdu, Guiyang, Hangzhou, Lanzhou, and Nanchang – where none existed in 2007. Restricting automobiles at the early stages of motorization may lead to a different pathway of urban development and mobility. Along with the continuous improvement of public transit, Chinese cities might simply be able to “leap frog” to a more sustainable urban paradigm.

This blog post is part of a 2-day series. Check back tomorrow for Part Two – a biking renaissance and multi-modal integration.

A congested Brazilian highway. Photo by Paulo Fehlauer.

Welcome back to TheCityFix Picks, our series highlighting the newsy and noteworthy of the past week. Each Friday, we’ll run down the headlines falling under TheCityFix’s five themes: integrated transport, urban development and accessibility, air quality and climate change, health and road safety, and communications and marketing.

Integrated Transport

President of Brazil Dilma Roussef announced nearly $69 billion in transportation infrastructure investment over the next two years. Brazil, which will host both the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics, has incorporated sustainable transport into its development plans, with some technical support from EMBARQ, the producer of this blog.

Google Maps, the wayfinding web application, surpassed more than 1 million public transit stops from Sydney to London. Those using a mobile operating system other than Google-designed Android OS have access to less than 1 million stops.

IBM will launch its 12th research lab in Nairobi, the first of its kind in Africa, with aims to increase government and services capacity through information technology. The lab will offer an “integrated command center” for Kenya, which could serve as a model for streamlining transportation networks in Nairobi and other cities across the continent.

Only 30 percent of Israelis use public transit, among the lowest ridership averages in the world. This data, sourced from a state issued report, also noted that net savings from increased transit use could be up to $100 million.

New York City’s much-anticipated Citi Bikeshare program, originally slated to launch in July, is set to roll out eight months behind schedule, next March. When the system is finally open for use, 7,000 bikes at 420 stations will be available across the boroughs of Manhattan and Brooklyn.

The carmaker Nissan will increase domestic production in the United States by 18 percent, fueling a boom in auto manufacturing. Nissan, based in Japan, is being incentivized to invest by untapped markets in the Americas and a prohibitively expensive Japanese Yen, which makes exports more costly to global consumers. The move will add hundreds of thousands of private vehicles to both North and South American roads.

In keeping with global best practices for bus operations, San Francisco’s “first-in-the-nation” all-door boarding policy has markedly decreased wait times along its five most congested routes in its inaugural month.

Across town, the hidden costs of underbidding for San Francisco’s subway extension may end up costing the city 40 percent more, or $765 million, to complete an underground line to its Chinatown neighborhood.

Urban Development + Accessibility

The Los Angeles City Council is altering the way businesses are required to provide parking, in line with the Mayor’s efforts to create “elegant density” as the city develops its bus and rail corridors. The Council is working to reduce minimum parking requirements, which could add costs and land use burdens for businesses and the urban environment.

Rail fares are set to go up for English rail passengers, increasing 6.2 percent by January. Some passengers will end up paying nearly £1,000 (US$1,567) more per year for their commutes.

Air Quality + Climate Change

There is a tangible link between air pollution and stability, according to a recent study in the American Journal of Epidemiology. High levels of common airborne pollutants associated with common factory and transportation-related emissions increases chances of delivering a stillborn baby by 27 percent for every 10 parts per billion increase in exposure to nitrogen dioxide over the course of a pregnancy.

A federal court in the U.S. State of Texas struck down a federal mandate capping certain levels of pollution from Texas factories.

American companies are “cashing in” on China’s notorious air pollution by providing emissions filters for trains and buses to reduce nitrogen dioxide emissions.

Health + Road Safety

Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, is scoping a half-million dollar transit, pedestrian and bike plan in an effort to decrease the capital’s “sedentary lifestyle.”

An overcrowded bus carrying passengers 385 miles north of New Delhi crashed, killing 52 people. The bus, which fell into a ravine in Himachal Pradesh state, was over capacity, carrying some passengers on its roof as it descended the gorge.

New video evidence chronicling pedestrian crashes in Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, surfaced on the internet. Baku, a city in which about 40 percent of traffic crashes involved pedestrians, experienced 1,115 accidents in 2010 alone, resulting in 342 fatal collisions. (Viewers are strongly cautioned due to the graphic nature of the video.)

Politicians in the U.S. State of New Jersey, which has one of the highest driving age requirements in America, are mulling legislation that would restrict the number of same-age passengers that may accompany teenage drivers.

Communications + Marketing

AT&T launched an advertising campaign, ItCanWait.com, calling for mobile phone owners to refrain from using their phone while behind the wheel.

Meanwhile, New Jersey’s Ocean County is introducing a mobile phone app that disables texting while a vehicle is in motion.

The Indian electrical grid has largely failed, leaving nearly 600 million people without power or stable transport. Photo by escalepade.

More than 600 million people are without power in India, in what is being described as “the world’s biggest blackout.”

Cities in 22 of India’s 28 states, including New Delhi, have been affected. As of 1:45 p.m. IST, only 38 megawatts were being provided to the capital, out of the roughly 4,000 megawatts needed to supply the city with adequate electricity. India’s transportation network, which relies heavily on electrified railways, came to a halt. The Delhi Metro, which moves nearly 2 million people daily, was completely down for hours.

Update on transport services, as of 12:45 p.m. EST, or, 10:45 p.m. IST:

• 300 trains have been stalled across 8 states primarily in Eastern India, stranding about 300,000 passengers. Diesel locomotives have been deployed to alleviate these passengers and haul the powerless railcars to their nearest respective stations.

Update on transport services, as of 11:30 p.m. EST, or, 9:30 p.m. IST:

• Trains run by North Western Railway are experiencing little delay, except for the Jaipur-Durg train, which is experiencing hour-and-a-half delays.
• Train service in Jharkrand State, home to more than 26 million people,  has been greatly impacted and been given a piecemeal 15 megawatts of power to run limited service.
• 180 commuter and long distance trains in the area immediately outside of Kolkota were halted as power failed to supply the network.

Sydney's transport authority may offer free rides to lure more passengers. Photo by Beau Giles.

Sydney’s new infrastructure authority, Infrastructure New South Wales (Infrastructure NSW), is looking at a range of options to reduce peak hour congestion. At an industry conference on November 15, agency officials suggested providing free train fares between midnight and 7:00 a.m.  Currently, Sydney’s train fares are the same price 24/7, except for return off-peak and weekend tickets.

Infrastructure NSW argues that free fares could encourage up to 5 percent of commuters  to switch to pre-peak hour travel.

Free early morning train fares were trialled in another Australian state in 2009, but the trial results suggested commuters tended to stick to their travel times, despite the free fare offer.  Many commuters tended to catch the last train in the free fare period, which created more congestion. A reduced early morning fare was also trialled by the previous NSW government in 2008, but it was never implemented because only 1 percent of commuters changed their travel habits.

However, research presented at the Australasian Transport Research Forum in September indicated that commuters may be willing to travel a little earlier if the price is right. The research found that, if fares are discounted by 30 percent, 15 percent of peak-hour passengers would be willing to travel half an hour earlier.

The proposal comes after Infrastructure NSW made an official submission to its national counterpart, Infrastructure Australia, asking for a AUD$8.58 billion contribution to the state’s AUD$62.6 billion infrastructure plan over the next four years. About a third of this budget would be spent on new transport infrastructure.

How are some of the ways your city encourages off-peak travel on public transport?

The Pedala Zezinho project repaired 150 bicycles in São Paulo, Brazil during September. Photo by Bruno Soares dos Santos.

Welcome back to TheCityFix Picks, our series highlighting the newsy and noteworthy of the past week. Each Friday, we’ll run down the headlines falling under TheCityFix’s five themes: integrated transport, urban development and accessibility, air quality and climate change, health and road safety, and communications and marketing.

Integrated Transport

The Rajkot Municipal Corporation (RMC) announced plans to procure 12 buses for the city’s forthcoming bus rapid transit system (BRT).

The number of countries hosting high speed rail systems is expected to double by 2014, according to research from the Worldwatch Institute.

The Chicago Transit Board (CTB) passed two ordinances, expanding the city’s future BRT system to include two additional corridors.

City council members in Cincinnati, Ohio defeated proposed legislation that would have effectively terminated the city’s ongoing streetcar project.

Urban Development + Accessibility

New York City Transportation Commissioner Janette Sadik-Khan announced that New York City will launch a smart parking system, much like that of San Francisco, in 2012.

The Pedala Zezinho project inspected 210 bicycles and repaired 150 in São Paulo, Brazil during the month of September.

India’s Union Minister of State for Urban Development, Saugata Roy, declared that the Indian government’s current policy focus is on the development of pubic transport systems across the country, including metro railways.

Air Quality + Climate Change

Australia’s parliament passed landmark carbon tax legislation. The country accounts for only 1.5 percent of global emissions, but is ranked as the highest per capita emitter in the world.

Toyota announced it will release a for-purchase hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle in 2015. The anticipated retail price is 100,000 euros ($US 138,000).

Amyris, a U.S.-based renewable energy and chemicals company, received final approval for $12.5 million in funding from the Brazilian Development Bank for a production facility in São Paulo.

Alcoa reveled an all-aluminum bus design and frame for BYD that reduces total weight for the BYD Electric Bus by 40 percent—one ton.

Volvo Cars China began an electric vehicle (EV) demonstration program in Shanghai  to better understand customers’ EV-related behavior.

Health + Road Safety

U.S. national surveys indicate that seasonal time changes, such as that experienced in the U.S. last Sunday, disrupt drivers’ bodily clocks to the extent of creating dangerously fatigued drivers.

Current studies suggest a link between vehicle fume exposure experienced during traffic congestion to lifelong cognitive deficiencies.

Recent calculations indicate that as compared to last year, New York City area passenger attacks on bus drivers and subway workers are up 20 percent and 16 percent, respectively.

Communications + Marketing

TheCityFix Brasil, produced by EMBARQ Brasil, is among the top 30 finalists in the sustainability category of Brazil’s Top Blog Award, one of the most prestigious blog competitions in the country.

The Americas Ciclovias Network (CRA) held its sixth meeting in Medellin, Colombia to strengthen the international Ciclovias pro-bicycling movement.

“Design with the Other 90%: CITIES,” an exhibit focusing on urban design solutions that support the 90 percent of the world’s population not traditionally serviced by the urban design community, is underway at the United Nations’ New York City headquarters.

Despite a previously canceled rail tunnel project, New Jersey commuters might receive an alternative mass transit route, after all. Photo by Tambako the Jaguar.

Yesterday, the U.S. Senate approved a funding measure that includes a minimum of $15 million for Amtrak to begin design and engineering measures on a proposed railroad tunnel project to connect New Jersey and New York.

The Gateway Tunnel project, which would extend from New Jersey’s Secaucus to Manhattan’s Penn Station, is one of two ideas to expand mass transit in the area. The other proposed idea is to extend New York City’s number 7 subway line to Secaucus, reports Newsroom Jersey.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie canceled the previously planned Access to the Region’s Core (ARC) Tunnel project in October 2010, a $9.8 billion commuter rail tunnel that would similarly offer alternative commuting options for the region. Christie cited potential cost overruns and poor connection to alternative mass transit routes as reasons for the cancellation. New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg had secured $3 billion in federal funding for ARC prior to Christie canceling it. Despite canceling ARC Tunnel, Christie showed support for the Gateway Tunnel project and the extension of the 7 line.

To assess the feasibility of the 7 line expansion, New York City paid $250,000. The project could cost an estimated $10 billion and take a decade to complete, NJ.com reports. The Gateway Tunnel project, on the other hand, is expected to cost $13.5 billion and take nine years to finish.

“This seems to be a very interesting addition to regional transport and an opportunity for choice riders, as the existing capacity of Hudson crossing is reaching saturation levels,” said Dario Hidalgo, the director of Research and Practice at EMBARQ (the producer of this blog). “The investment will be sizeable and it will be very important to assess risk, especially considering that rail and tunnels have a very bad record in the past, with large cost overruns.”

Hidalgo sees the study and feasibility stage of this project to be a great opportunity to explore bus alternatives for regional commuters. Hidalgo continues:

For example, Bent Flyvbjerg  has documented average cost escalation of 47% in rail projects and 35% in roads and tunnels.   This does not mean that the tunnel is not worthy; it might be according to comments by those involved. But an adequate analysis shall be made, which seems to be happening with this phase of the project, in which detailed studies will be contracted.

In the mean time, as the project will take several years, it could be interesting to test additional bus priority schemes, in the Lincoln and Holland tunnels, and the Washington Bridge.   They are the best way to improve capacity.  A single lane for general traffic moves 2,500-5,000 passengers per hour (depending on the vehicle occupancy).  The same lane with buses is able to move 32,600 passengers per hour per direction.

Are you a commuter in this region? What do you make of the recent developments in the NY-NJ commuter rail tunnel projects? Share with us in the comments section below.

Correction, 11/17/2011: An earlier version of this post incorrectly referred to Holland Tunnel as Amsterdam Tunnel.