Hundreds of thousands of vehicles have been court ordered to use convert to CNG in the Indian State of Gujarat. Photo by vipez.

This post is the second of a two-part series on CNG fuel in Indian cities. The first post on TheCityFix can be found here.

A version of this post was originally published online on India Together.

On July 25, 2012, the Gujarat High Court ordered all vehicles in the state to be converted to compressed natural gas (CNG) within one year. The task is mammoth. In Ahmedabad alone, about 700,000 two-wheelers and 70,000 four-wheelers will have to be retrofitted with CNG kits. Discussions on the merits of this decision have focused almost entirely on aspects of implementation—whether it’s possible to retrofit so many vehicles within a year; whether the CNG supply in the city of Ahmedabad can be sufficiently augmented to meet the expected increase in demand; and what the impact on the revenues of the state government would be.

However, one question that has been conspicuous by its absence is this: Given the goal of reducing local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, is CNG really that much superior to diesel and petrol as the preferred choice of fuel for urban transport?

NOT A SILVER BULLET

In recent years, the use of CNG has been seen as a silver bullet, a cure-all, for the scourge of local air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in Indian cities. In particular, the decision of the Supreme Court in 1998 mandating the conversion of all public transport vehicles in New Delhi to CNG has been considered a landmark ruling and a rallying call by public agencies, civic groups and NGOs. Campaigns and public interest lawsuits to promote conversion to CNG have gathered steam, with increasing success. However, the presumption that CNG is superior to diesel and petrol fails to take into consideration several aspects surrounding the use and performance of CNG as a fuel.

Firstly, the perception of reduced emissions from using CNG has not been conclusively backed by evidence. A meta-analysis of emissions studies of various engine and fuel technologies for public transport vehicles, for instance, shows that there is no clear winner when it comes to fuel choice. The use of CNG results in lower Particulate Matter (PM) emissions, compared to conventionally used fuel and diesel. However, it performs worse on other emissions components, particularly Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and greenhouse gases. Further, the study indicates that when vehicles employ post-treatment of emissions, the different fuel choices perform comparably. CNG vehicles fitted with oxidation catalysts, and diesel engines that utilize Ultra-Low Sulphur Diesel (ULSD) and diesel particulate filters have roughly the same level of emissions.

Secondly, a review of the several studies that have looked at air quality in New Delhi post-CNG conversion shows that the impacts are largely insignificant. One study, using daily ambient measurements for four years shows, for example, that levels of NOx have actually risen, and levels of PM show only marginal reductions.  Another study that did find reductions in PM, Carbon Monoxide (CO) and Sulphur Dioxide post-CNG conversion attributed a significant part of the reduction to the lower sulphur content in petrol and diesel in recent years.

Thirdly, engine technology matters. Almost all CNG-powered vehicles in India use retrofitted engines. That is, regular petrol engines have been modified for CNG use. There are significant disadvantages with this method. Most importantly, the combustion of CNG in retrofitted vehicles is less than optimal, negating some of the “cleaner” emissions claims made on its behalf. For auto-rickshaws, in particular, one study found that as much as one-third of CNG is improperly burned in two-stroke engines, resulting in higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions, and significantly higher levels of PM emissions due to unburned lubrication oil, which appears as the blue smoke that has become a hallmark of CNG rickshaws. It concludes that New Delhi could have achieved greater emissions reductions, and at a lower cost, simply by upgrading rickshaws to higher efficiency four-stroke petrol engines.

Finally, anecdotal evidence from EMBARQ’s work with rickshaw drivers suggests that engines retrofitted to use CNG are costlier to maintain, deteriorate faster in terms of mileage offered, and ultimately have shorter lives. This is also a story we hear repeated often in our experience working with public bus operators who use CNG. Any gains made at a “per-unit of fuel used” level may well disappear, therefore, when the overall quantum of fuel use and the lifecycle costs of vehicles are taken into account.

CNG, then, is by no means a clear-cut winner in the race to finding a clean burning fuel for vehicles.

KEEPING OPTIONS OPEN

This is not to say that there are no benefits from using CNG. Certainly there are non-environmental benefits from having a third fuel option in addition to petrol and diesel, such as the increase in energy security and the buffer from price shocks offered by a diversification of fuel choice. This is also not to say that CNG has no benefit as a potentially cleaner source of fuel for urban transport in India. However, until such a time as a “clear winner” emerges, we are doing our urban citizens a disservice by proclaiming one particular fuel as the solution to all our air quality woes. We need, instead, to pursue improvements in fuels, technology and standards on all fronts.

In other words, truly improving the quality of air in our cities will require more than a blanket mandate to convert vehicles to CNG. There are several initial steps that can be taken to reduce emissions from vehicles that use CNG, as well as other fuels.

First, we must work directly with manufacturers to develop engines that are designed specifically for the use of CNG. In the long run, retrofitted engines are a sub-optimal, and potentially counterproductive solution. Second, we must emphasize post-treatment of emissions as a relatively low-cost strategy for reducing local air pollution, particularly the use of oxidation catalysts for CNG vehicles and diesel particulate filters for diesel vehicles. Third, we must capitalize on the major investments being made internationally in improving diesel technology, especially with regard to the development of higher efficiency engines and Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel (ULSD) fuel variants. And fourth, we must insist on a strong regime of continuously improving mileage and emissions standards for vehicles, regardless of the fuel and engine technology used.

As a final point, it is worth emphasizing that, given the phenomenal increase in both population and private vehicle ownership in Indian cities, any improvements in fuel and vehicle technology will, at best, result in marginal improvements in urban air quality. Any decrease in emissions from individual vehicles will be offset by the addition of an ever-increasing number of private vehicles on Indian city roads. In the long run, significant improvements in urban air quality can only come from shifting people to public transport and developing urban forms that avoid the need for excessive and overlong motorized travel. This can only be achieved through significant and continual investments in high-quality public transport.

A taxicab running on compressed natural gas in New Delhi. Photo by Luke X. Martin.

In India, the Gujarat High Court has ordered the state government to convert all public and private vehicles registered in the state to compressed natural gas (CNG) within one year.

From the court’s order:

“State is directed to pass necessary orders within [the] shortest possible period, at any rate not exceeding one year from today, compelling the owners of all vehicles having registration in Gujarat to use natural gas, and if necessary, even at higher prices, for the protection of the lives of the citizens living in the state.”

These recent orders are from a hearing over a petition received by the High Court from Dhanghdra Prakruti Mandal, an environmental NGO, claiming pollution levels in Ahmedabad, Gujarat were on par with those in New Delhi and Mumbai. The petition argued that it was a discriminatory practice for the central government not to provide  a reduced price on the cleaner burning fuel to Gujarat-based city gas distributors, despite Ahmedabad’s clear need for it.

At the end of the judgment, the High Court also said that if the order for all vehicles in the state to run on CNG was not enforced within a month, strict restrictions would be passed to fix emissions levels to international standards. The court has also directed the central government to offer natural gas, including CNG, to the city of Ahmedabad at the same price it supplies the fuel to New Delhi and Mumbai under the Administered Price Mechanism (APM).

Gas pricing in India is set in two ways: APM and free market. The price of APM gas is set by the government and subsidizes fuel meant for fertilizer, power, and city gas distributors. APM is also used to lower prices on CNG in Mumbai and New Delhi and has allowed CNG prices in New Delhi to be as low as Rs 38.35 (US$0.69) per kilogram, while the cost for the same in Ahmedabad is at market price, or Rs 53 (US$0.96).

However, one year may not be enough time to set up the infrastructure required for the entire state’s vehicles to run on CNG. It will surely trigger petitions of its own in response, as the upfront cost of car conversions and infrastructure will be significant. However, if successful, it could force auto manufacturers to increase their production of CNG vehicles to feed the market in Gujarat, which could mean higher sales across India.

Recently, Saurabh Patel, Gujarat’s Minster of State for Energy, stated the government would place vehicles and small industries at a higher priority for receiving CNG resources, while larger industries would only receive surpluses.

CNG Conversion: The Pros and Cons

Natural gas is available in two forms: Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Liquid Natural Gas (LNG). CNG can be used to power cars, but comes with pros and cons.

While the court’s directive may seem like a good move towards clearer air in the state, it is based on a controlled comparison of gasoline versus CNG, which shows that CNG reduces carbon monoxide by more than 90 percent, emits 20 percent to 3o percent lower levels of greenhouse gases, and cuts carcinogenic pollutants and non-methane hydrocarbon emissions. It fails to consider, though, the impact of other emissions, engine technology, and the lifecycle costs of vehicles. The initial conversion is costly. Additionally, it requires adequate and properly placed pumping stations. Converted cars’ engines may not last as long as non-converted cars, and they will also need to give up a significant amount of trunk space for new fuel tanks. All things considered, CNG may not really be the best fuel option for urban transport.

Air pollution in Hong Kong obscures views of the city’s skyscrapers. Photo by John Roberts

Welcome back to TheCityFix Picks, our series highlighting the newsy and noteworthy of the past week. Each Friday, we’ll run down the headlines falling under TheCityFix’s five themes: integrated transport, urban development and accessibility, air quality and climate change, health and road safety, and communications and marketing.

Integrated Transport

A massive power outage in India left millions without electricity, paralyzing trains and leaving hundreds of thousands stranded on their morning commutes.

In the United States, voters in Atlanta defeated a proposal for a 1 percent sales tax to fund roads and public transportation by a nearly 2-to-1 margin.

Meanwhile in Massachusetts lawmakers finalized a new transportation bill including $1.39 billion for railway expansion and highway and bridge repair.

Urban Development + Accessibility

Many of London’s newly installed Olympic VIP lanes have been turned off as competitors, the Prime Minister  and other high profile guests have turned to public transit instead.

Karachi, Pakistan, has begun construction on a dedicated BRT lane, with the city’s first BRT line to open in 2014. The new line is expected to reduce commute times along its route by half, with an expected ridership of 13,000 people on opening day.

Colorado begins construction of a new BRT route near Boulder. The project will also incorporate high occupancy vehicles and add an additional toll lane along the 10-maile project span.

Air Quality + Climate Change

Masdar City, Abu Dhabi’s planned hub for clean technologies, has constructed the Middle East’s first rapid charger for electric vehicles, reducing battery recharge time by 7.5 hours.

Hong Kong endured its worst air quality in two years, experiencing levels of air pollution akin to the 2010 sandstorm. Elderly and sick individuals were warned to stay indoors.

Health + Road Safety

Extensive changes to New York City’s streets-including pedestrian plazas and bike lanes-have made it more difficult for blind pedestrians to navigate the city.

Communications + Marketing

Google maps now incorporates service alerts for New York City’s subway, making it that much easier for nearly 5 million passengers to plan their daily commute.

RATP, the Paris regional transportation authority, has launched a new ad campaign discouraging impolite behavior among Metro riders. The coy ads subtly disparage a gamut of rude habits, from shoving fellow passengers to saying a polite bonjour to fare collectors.

Rio de Janeiro unveiled the first station of its forthcoming bus rapid transit system, which conntects Barra da Tijuca (pictured above) to other city neighborhoods. Photo by Rodrigo Soldon.

Welcome back to TheCityFix Picks, our series highlighting the newsy and noteworthy of the past week. Each Friday, we’ll run down the headlines falling under TheCityFix’s five themes: integrated transport, urban development and accessibility, air quality and climate change, health and road safety, and communications and marketing.

Integrated Transport

The Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro unveiled the first station of its forthcoming,123 kilometers-long bus rapid transit (BRT) system.

India’s Ministry of Railways Executive Director Anjali Goyal professed the need for India to enact a national railway policy in a presentation at the “Transportation Practices in India and the European Union” workshop.

Transit authorities in the American cities of Nashville, Tenn. and Des Moines, Iowa are moving forward with prospective bus rapid transit projects.

Two-hundred and twenty-one new, articulated buses will be added to Istanbul’s public transit fleet—already numbering around 3,000 vehicles.

Urban Development + Accessibility

The Alliance for Biking and Walking released Bicycling and Walking in the U.S.: 2012 Benchmarking Report. Among its findings is that bicycling and pedestrian funding comprises 1.6 percent of federal transport dollars, yet the active transport modes encompass twelve percent of U.S. travel.

Bogota, Colombia launched an electric taxi pilot program. The Clinton Climate Initiative (CCI) Cities program and its C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (C40) partner collaborated with the city on the project.

The Washington, D.C. Office of Planning’s Streetcar Land Use Study concluded that the city’s planned streetcar network will induce tremendous growth in the number of households and businesses accessible to a rail station by walking.

Air Quality + Climate Change

Conventionally-fueled vehicles and electric vehicles were compared in the categories of emissions and environmental health impacts for 34 Chinese cities in a new joint study.

Bio-technology groups Novozymes and Sea6Energy forged an exploratory research agreement to develop a process for generating biofuels from seaweed.

Health + Road Safety

London cyclists currently have the opportunity to experience the street perspectives of city HGV (heavy goods vehicle) drivers through the Metropolitan police’s Traffic Cycle Team’s “Exchanging Places” safety events.

U.S. Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood trounced the new House of Representatives transport bill, calling it “the most anti-safety bill I have ever seen. It hollows out our No. 1 priority, which is safety.”

Communications + Marketing

A MOU was signed for the transaction of twelve fuel cell stacks to India’s Tata Motors for the powering of zero-emission buses for demonstrations in a collection of Indian cities.

Bicycle safety workshops were held last week at the Centro Latino for Literacy in Los Angeles, California.

China's oil demand will increase by roughly 60 percent before peaking in 2027. Photo by Mariana.

Welcome to “Research Recap,” our series highlighting recent reports, studies and other findings in sustainable transportation policy and practice, in case you missed it.

Global Oil Demand

Global demand for oil may peak before 2020 and fall back to 2010 levels by 2035, according to a new study. Completed as a multi-client project with participation from various global energy and technology companies, the study’s main findings are that peak oil demand may occur before 2020 at a level no greater than 4 percent above 2010 levels, and subsequently decrease to a level of 3 percent below 2010 levels by 2035. The study identifies the major contributors of this future scenario to be new technologies, global energy security policies, changes to geographic distributions of demand, and changes to the mix of refined energy products demanded by the market. Points of interest included in the study’s future scenario are China’s oil demand increasing by roughly 60 percent before peaking in 2027, and the world’s vehicle fleet increasing by 80 percent between 2010 and 2035.

The Cost of Crashes

The American Automotive Association (AAA) recently ran a study examining the financial costs of personal vehicle crashes. The study calculated that across the United States the cost of traffic crashes totals almost $300 billion. This is roughly three times AAA’s calculated cost of traffic congestion ($98 billion.) The study examined 2009 data collected from 99 U.S. metropolitan areas and adopted the Federal Highway Administration’s crash cost formula, which incorporates the costs of emergency and medical care, lost earnings and household productivity, property damage, lost quality of life, among other factors. In all the 99 metropolitan areas examined, it was found that the cost of crashes exceed the cost of traffic congestion. In the Baltimore, Md. region, for example, the calculated per capita cost of crashes is $1,627 and the per capita cost of traffic congestion is $810.

Predicting Walkability

A new report by Dr. S. Turner and S. Abley, “Predicting Walkability,” outlines new methodology for measuring the quality of pedestrian environments. The new guidelines were conceived by combining two preexisting methodologies: collecting people’s perceptions on walking environments found in NZTA’s Guide to Undertaking Community Street Reviews, and systematically assessing physical and operational street variables found in Walkability Research Tools – Variables Collection Methodology. The principle methodological products offered in the report are formulas to determine the quality of a walking environment when walking alongside that road and when crossing that road. As indicated in the Executive Summary of the report, the researchers’ motivations for the project were to fill in the measurability gaps for this under-examined transport mode.

Welcome back to TheCityFix Picks, our series highlighting the newsy and noteworthy of the past week. Each Friday, we’ll run down the headlines falling under TheCityFix’s five themes: mobility, quality of life, environment, public space, and technology and innovation

Mobility

Cape Town unveiled the first phase of the MyCiTi bus service on its Integrated Rapid Transit System.

Volkswagen announced it will be entering the car sharing market in the fall, with a new program in Hanover, Germany.

Lagos, Nigeria received an additional 100 buses for its bus rapid transit (BRT) scheme to accommodate for expanding routes in the ever-bustling city.

Germany’s state-owned rail company Deutsche Bahn and Siemens AG joined in an order for 300 high-speed trains as a part of a EUR 6 billion (US$ 8.5 billion) Deutsche Bahn project to be completed by 2030.

The U.S. Department of Transportation announced $2 billion in much-anticipated funding for nationwide high-speed rail, including $795 million to upgrade the Northeast Corridor and $404 million to expand service in the Midwest.

Quality of Life

This week marked the official launch of the Decade of Action for Road Safety, a global effort to reduce death and disability from road traffic crashes, whose participants include EMBARQ (the producer of this blog).

Michigan’s Office of Highway Safety Planning released 2010’s traffic crash numbers, which found a 6 percent increase in fatalities involving pedestrians and a 55 percent increase in bicycle-related deaths.

Indiana became the 32nd state in the union to make it illegal to text while driving. The law is in effect as of July 1, and fines may total upwards of $500.

May is National Youth Traffic Safety Month in the United States and for good reason: The number of teen traffic crash fatalities during the summer months of May, June, July and August is nearly double that of the rest of the year.

Pay-per-drive vehicle insurance holds potential benefits for drivers, the environment and traffic conditions, indicates a new study by Todd Litman of the Victoria Transport Policy Institute.

Environment

The global green building market is expected to grow from $7.2 trillion to $12 trillion in the next few decades, declared Niclas Svenningsen of the Sustainable Buildings and Climate Initiative.

Spain’s government is supporting energy savings and sustainable mobility through a new subsidy program incentivizing the spread of electric vehicles within the country.

Transit buses are expected to continue going green, as Pike Research calculated that 50 percent of the 64,000 total transit buses expected to be delivered worldwide in 2015 will be alternative fuel.

Chinese ministries signed an agreement to jointly promote the development of a combined rail-and-waterway transport network, citing reasons of increasing efficiency, saving energy and reducing carbon emissions.

Public Space

If three-quarters of California’s cars were electric by 2025, the number of pollution-related lung diseases and asthma attacks in the city would decrease by 70 percent, reports a new study by the American Lung Association.

In honor of the newly launched Decade of Action for Road Safety, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced a multi-pronged program to reduce traffic-related deaths, including a new “slow zone” in the Bronx.

The tallest “living wall” in Europe, Frosts Vertiscapes, was recently completed in London. Comprising one wall of the Mint Hotel, the vertical garden elegantly integrates both ecological and structural form and function into the public space.

Technology and Innovation

The Chicago Transit Authority announced it will be enhancing its bus system with 160 LED display signs at high-volume bus shelters throughout the city.

An energy-efficient dual-fuel Volksbus prototype, running on compressed natural gas (CNG) and diesel, was launched in Rio de Janerio by Brazil’s Secretary of State for Transport and Economic Development, Energy, Industry and Services.

Toyota launched its new Prius model in Japan, the Prius a, which boasts both five- and seven-seat models. Toyota also announced there will be an unavoidable delay in delivering the new Prius models because of production slow-downs resulting from the Great East Japan Earthquake.